Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3895 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

MQ 3895 · ORD → CAK

departs 4:41 PM CT · arrives 6:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at CAK more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

CAK (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3895 · ORD → CAK

Odds over time