Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3991
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 3991 · DCA → BNA
departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 2:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 34%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
DCA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 9.6 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.