Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3991 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

MQ 3991 · DCA → BNA

departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 2:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±4 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.43 in

BNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3991 · DCA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?