Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3991
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3991 · DCA → BNA
departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 2:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.