Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4009
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
MQ 4009 · ILM → ORD
departs 3:22 PM ET · arrives 4:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 52%
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1.75 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.