Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 4131 · DCA → BUF
departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 9.6 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.