Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5016 LANDED 8:08 PM ET, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

OH 5016 · CLT → HPN

took off 6:41 PM ET · landed 8:08 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

HPN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5016 · CLT → HPN

Odds over time