Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5136 LANDED 2:22 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

OH 5136 · CLT → JAN

took off 2:06 PM ET · landed 2:22 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

JAN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5136 · CLT → JAN

Odds over time