Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5268 LANDED 11:32 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

OH 5268 · DCA → BUF

took off 10:43 PM ET · landed 11:32 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5268 · DCA → BUF

Odds over time