Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5416 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

OH 5416 · DCA → MSP

departs 3:26 PM ET · arrives 5:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5416 · DCA → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?