Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5436 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

OH 5436 · DCA → BGR

departs 10:04 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BGR?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at BGR that day

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5436 · DCA → BGR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGR?