Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5457 LANDED 4:31 PM ET, ~16 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

OH 5457 · DCA → ROC

took off 3:38 PM ET · landed 4:31 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5457 · DCA → ROC

Odds over time