Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
OO 3538 · FSD → MSP
departs 4:26 PM CT · arrives 5:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 25%
Thu 10/1 11%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±2 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
FSD is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.40 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.90 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.