Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4915
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
OO 4915 · PHX → MFR
departs 9:10 PM MT · arrives 11:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 17%
Thu 10/1 20%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
MFR (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.