Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
OO 5406 · SFO → SBP
departs 6:28 PM PT · arrives 7:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 28%
Thu 10/1 20%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SBP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBP?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBP (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.