Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
OO 5451 · ORD → ALB
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 5:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 49%
Thu 10/1 53%
Fri 10/2 27%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ALB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ALB?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ALB that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
ALB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
ALB (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.