Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 202 LANDED 11:49 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 202 · ORD → DCA

took off 9:22 AM CT · landed 11:49 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 202 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time