UA 2638 · IAH → SEA

took off 4:22 PM CT · expected to land 6:22 PM PT (scheduled 4:25 PM CT → 7:12 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2638 · IAH → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?