Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2648
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2648 · MCO → LAS
departs 3:55 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 34%
Thu 10/1 29%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±5 pts
+23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.