Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2648
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 2648 · MCO → LAS
departs 3:55 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 29%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.