Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2648
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2648 · MCO → LAS
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Wed 9/30 35%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.