Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2862 · MDW → PHX
departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 7:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 39%
Thu 10/1 51%
Fri 10/2 32%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.