Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2971
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 2971 · MSP → MDW
departs 3:50 PM CT · arrives 5:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 38%
Thu 10/1 44%
Fri 10/2 22%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.54 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.