Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3634
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 3634 · SFO → BNA
departs 10:50 PM PT · arrives 5:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 37%
Thu 10/1 33%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
10pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.