Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 3651 · SFO → PHX
departs 3:35 PM PT · arrives 5:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 30%
Thu 10/1 44%
Fri 10/2 44%
Mon 10/5 37%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.