Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 3793 · SMF → LAX
departs 7:30 PM PT · arrives 9:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 19%
Thu 10/1 31%
Fri 10/2 33%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.