Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4294
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4294 · RSW → BWI
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 8:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 31%
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.