Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4315 · PHX → HOU
departs 6:35 PM MT · arrives 11:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 36%
Thu 10/1 38%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 38%
Tue 10/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.