Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4351
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4351 · MDW → PHL
departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 46%
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.