Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4351
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 4351 · MDW → PHL
departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 29%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.