Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4643 · MDW → MSP
departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 39%
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.