Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4779
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4779 · AUS → SFO
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 46%
Thu 10/1 52%
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.