Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3538 LANDED 6:59 PM ET, ~3 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 3538 · IAD → PWM

took off 5:49 PM ET · landed 6:59 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3538 · IAD → PWM

Odds over time