YX 4502 · LGA → BOS

departs 9:29 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4502 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?