YX 4502 · LGA → BOS

departs 9:17 PM ET · arrives 10:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4502 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?