Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4506 LANDED 2:06 PM ET, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4506 · LGA → CAE

took off 12:40 PM ET · landed 2:06 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ 12pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CAE

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CAE (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4506 · LGA → CAE

Odds over time