Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4506 · LGA → ROA
departs 3:26 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 18%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±15 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ROA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
ROA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.