Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4506 · LGA → ROA
departs 3:26 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at ROA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ROA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ROA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.21 in
ROA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.