tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4506 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today

YX 4506 · LGA → ROA

departs 3:26 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?
27% chance · ±1 pts −12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 3.7d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ROA?

  1. On time or early
    72%
  2. 15–30 min late
    10%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    10%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    6%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    1%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.