Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
YX 4518 · ORD → RDU
departs 3:59 PM CT · arrives 7:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 41%
Thu 10/1 42%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.