Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4520 LANDED 8:55 PM ET, ~29 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4520 · DCA → IND

took off 7:42 PM ET · landed 8:55 PM ET (scheduled 7:35 PM ET → 9:30 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IND?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4520 · DCA → IND

Odds over time

How late did it get to IND?