Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
YX 4543 · ACK → DCA
departs 10:39 AM ET · arrives 12:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 9%
Thu 10/1 8%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↑
DCA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 9.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.