Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
YX 4616 · BOS → BUF
departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 14%
Thu 10/1 18%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.