Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4692
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
YX 4692 · BOS → MSN
departs 8:23 PM ET · arrives 10:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.