Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4759
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
YX 4759 · ATL → ORD
departs 3:27 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 44%
Thu 10/1 52%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.