Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4765 LANDED 2:17 PM ET, ~25 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4765 · RDU → JFK

took off 1:13 PM ET · landed 2:17 PM ET (scheduled 12:08 PM ET → 1:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4765 · RDU → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?