Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4765 · RDU → JFK
departs 12:08 PM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.34 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.