Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4765 · RDU → JFK
departs 12:08 PM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.