YX 4765 · RDU → JFK

took off 2:06 PM ET · landed 3:16 PM ET (scheduled 12:08 PM ET → 1:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

JFK (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4765 · RDU → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?