Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4765 · RDU → JFK
departs 12:08 PM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 19%
Thu 10/8 18%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.